Lake erie marine forecast

Lake erie marine forecast DEFAULT

LEZ168 Expires:202110200215;;942428 Fzus61 Kcle 191937 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 337 Pm Edt Tue Oct 19 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis.. High pressure 30.20 inches will persist over lake erie through Wednesday afternoon. Low pressure 29.80 inches will move into the great lakes region Wednesday night, moving a cold front across the lake on Thursday. A trough averaging 30.00 inches will linger over lake erie through Saturday. Lez061-168-169-200215- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 337 pm edt Tue oct 19 2021
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Waves 2 feet or less.

LEZ168


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 192233 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 633 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

. 00zAviation and Near Term Forecast Update .

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will persist over the area through Wednesday, followed by a low pressure system and cold front on Thursday. A trough may linger across the area into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. 630 pm update . The weather is very quiet this evening and overnight. No changes were needed to the ongoing forecast at this time.

Previous discussion . Quiet weather is expected through Wednesday as upper- level ridging and high pressure persists across the region. Despite warm temperatures from this afternoon, clear skies will allow radiational cooling to bring temperatures down into the mid to upper 40s tonight. Above average temperatures in the low 70s are forecast for Wednesday as the ridge continues to build, resulting in pleasant weather conditions under mostly sunny skies.

By Wednesday night, a strong upper-level trough approaches from the west. Strong forcing and ample moisture content content will result in the increase of precipitation chances late Wednesday night with a slight chance of a thunderstorm for the western portion of the CWA.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A quick moving, rather potent upper-level shortwave trough will move across across the Great Lakes region Thursday morning into the afternoon hours. Early on Thursday, a cold front will move across the area. Models continue to suggest an additional cold front moving through the area again Thursday night. Although overall forecast instability remains low for Thursday, there is vertical speed sheer over the area. That coupled with an associated moisture axis and upper level support, there is a high shear-lowsevere weather potential on Thursday. Primary concern will be the mixing down of stronger winds aloft in thunderstorms. Have opted to include chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, however it will be difficult for storms to develop large enough to produce thunder, so this will need to continue to be monitored. Currently,has issued a Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe weather for the eastern tier of counties. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 60s with overnight lows dipping into the mid 40s.

On Friday, a weak shortwave will again move along the southern edge of the upper level trough, providing support for additional showers. The bulk of moisture appears to remain along the southern tier of counties during the day Friday, shifting northeast towards NE OH and NW PA for the overnight hours. This will be the primary source of shower development during the day before switching over to a mix of synoptic and lake effect rain showers overnight. The short term remains an active weather pattern, but overallremains fairly low with the bulk of it occurring Thursday. With each passing shortwave, a cooler airmass makes it way further over the area, allowing for highs on Friday to be in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the low 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The start of the weekend will again be associated with a passing shortwave trough aloft as an upper-level low center north of the Great Lakes will continue to rotate in nearly the same location. This will allow for the continued cool air to be advected into the area and for northwesterly winds to persist. With this orientation, lake effect rain showers are likely for the snowbelt areas on Saturday through the evening hours. After Saturday, models begin to diverge in agreement with handling the next low pressure expected to develop somewhere in the central part of the country early next week. Most notable of this period will be the more seasonably cool temperatures in the 50s persisting through the period and the potential of the first frost as overnight temperatures dip down into the low 40s, possibly into the 30s.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/. weather will continue for pilots flying in and out of northern Ohio and northwest PA during thisperiod. High pressure is over the region with mostly clear skies. Winds will be from the southwest around 5 to 10 knots now through Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook . Nonpossible in showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Nonlikely in lower ceilings Thursday night into Friday. Nonmay persist Friday into Saturday with lower ceilings and scattered showers.

MARINE. Currently, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the eastern basins through Wednesday afternoon as the lake sits on the northern edge of a high pressure system. This high pressure over the eastern U.S. will continue to drift eastward through Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday evening, a low pressure will move into the western Great Lakes, shifting winds to southwesterly ahead of the system. By Wednesday night/Thursday morning, winds will again increase to 15-25 knots resulting in the likely need of an additional Small Craft Advisory for much of Thursday. Once the associated cold front moves east of the area, winds will shift to northwesterly and weather to 10-15 knots across the lake. These conditions will persist through the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ147>149.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . Griffin/Saunders SHORT TERM . Campbell LONG TERM . Campbell AVIATION . Griffin MARINE . Campbell


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Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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Link to 5 minute data for KHZY

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      Lake Erie getting smarter with new water quality buoys
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      Forecast marine lake erie

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      Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast



      The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:

      LEZ041 Forecast Issued: 1030 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021


      Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Waterspouts Late This Morning. Lake Effect Showers Late This Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers Early This Afternoon. Waves 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet.
      Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots. Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet.
      Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts In The Afternoon. Showers Likely In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.
      Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
      Sunday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet, Then Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet.
      Monday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Waterspouts During The Day. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
      Tuesday...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northeast. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
      Area Forecast Discussion
      National Weather Service Buffalo NY
      357pm EDT Tuesday Oct 19 2021

      Synopsis
      High pressure extending from the Southeastern states to the Upper Ohio Valley will provide our region with warm and dry weather through Wednesday. A cold front will then cross the area on Thursday with widespread showers...with cooler conditions then returning for Friday and the upcoming weekend.

      Near Term - Through Wednesday
      Broad high pressure extending from the Southeastern states to the Upper Ohio Valley will remain in place through Wednesday...while heigheights aloft continue to rise in the wake of a departing upper level low over Atlantic Canada. The net result of all this will be fair dry weather...along with notably warmer temperatures. The latter will also be aided by a relatively tight pressure gradient on the northern periphery of the surface high...which will not only result in breezy conditions/good mixing by day...but will also help to prevent significant decoupling at night.

      Speaking more specifically with respect to temperatures...lows tonight will range from the upper 40s across interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Continued warming of our airmass will then support fairly widespread highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday...with the warmest readings found across the lower elevations of the Finger Lakes and north of the Niagara Escarpment.

      In terms of cloud cover...mainly clear conditions are expected until increasing mid and high clouds develop out ahead of the next approaching system during Wednesday.

      Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday Night
      A surface ridge will track east of the region Wednesday night. A southwest flow will increase in response to pressure falls centered across the central Great Lakes. An area of low pressure will track to the northwest while a cold front approaches the region Thursday. Drier air and lack of synoptic forcing ahead of the front will result in a mostly dry morning. Shower chances increase across far western NY and the northern Tug Hill region late Thursday morning before showers move into the rest of the region by Thursday afternoon. A potent shortwave trough behind this system will result in strong forcing. Showers, heavy at times are likely ahead of the front into Thursday evening. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon across interior portions of the region where daytime heating may result in some instability ahead of the front. The front will move to the east and cool air will filter back into the region. Temperatures at 850mb will fall to below zero by Friday morning. Some lake enhanced rain showers are possible into Friday morning.

      The cool airmass will persist over the region Friday and Friday night. Dry air and weak subsidence will move in aloft while daytime heating and lake induced instability promote the chances for scattered showers and strato-cumulus through Friday. Best chance will be southeast of Lake Ontario.

      Temperatures will start off in the mid to upper 60s Thursday and fall to the mid to upper 40s Thursday night. They only rebound to the low to mid 50s Friday before falling to the upper 30s to mid 40s Friday night.

      Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
      An upper level trough will push across the region Saturday and Saturday night, while a reinforcing cold front swings across the region. 850 mb temperatures are expected to cool to near -3C by Sunday morning, behind the front, which will be sufficient for a lake response off both lakes in general west-northwest flow regime. Should be greater moisture and there is potential for shortwave to work through at this time as well. Overall that will result in increasing chances for showers first downstream of the lakes, then expanding to more areas later Sunday as the trough axis/colder air aloft works across.

      Another cold front works through Sunday night with even colder air aloft arriving as low level winds turning more northwesterly. Showers will continue.nue off both lakes and also over the higher terrain locations due to upslope flow.

      Precipitation type will be mainly rain this weekend, but with 850 mb temperatures as cold as -5C, could see some wet snowflakes across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario both Saturday and Sunday nigheights and possibly even over western New York Sunday night.

      Trough axis will begin shifting east by Monday with the next system quickly bringing increasing chances for rain.

      Marine
      Broad high pressure extending from the southeastern States to the Upper Ohio Valley will only slowly drift to the east coast through Wednesday. A fairly tight pressure gradient on the northern periphery of this surface high will produce a moderate westerly flow into Wednesday...necessitating Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore waters of both lakes.

      NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
      NY...None.

      Marine
      Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT Wednesday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT Wednesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT Wednesday for LOZ045. Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT Wednesday for LOZ044.



      Sours: https://marineweather.net/coastal/lake-erie-dunkirk-to-buffalo-ny-marine-forecast
      The Perfect Storm (Lake Erie)

      National Weather Service Marine Forecast FZUS61 KCLE

      FZUS61 KCLE 191937 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 337 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. SYNOPSIS High pressure 30.20 inches will persist over Lake Erie through Wednesday afternoon. Low pressure 29.80 inches will move into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night, moving a cold front across the lake on Thursday. A trough averaging 30.00 inches will linger over Lake Erie through Saturday. LEZ162>164-200215- Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM offshoreline to US-Canadian border- Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border- The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- 337 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 TONIGHT Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. WEDNESDAY Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. WEDNESDAY NIGHT Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. THURSDAY Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. THURSDAY NIGHT West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. FRIDAY North winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. SATURDAY Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. SUNDAY Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
      LEZ165>167-200215- Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the- Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border- 337 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 TONIGHT West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. WEDNESDAY West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. WEDNESDAY NIGHT Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. THURSDAY Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. THURSDAY NIGHT West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. FRIDAY North winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SATURDAY Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. SUNDAY West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
      LEZ061-168-169-200215- Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Geneva-on-the- Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- 337 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 TONIGHT West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. WEDNESDAY West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 feet. WEDNESDAY NIGHT Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. THURSDAY Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. THURSDAY NIGHT West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. FRIDAY North winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. SATURDAY North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Waves 2 feet or less. SUNDAY West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Waves 2 feet or less.
      LEZ161-200215- MAFOR 1921/ ERIE WEST 1/3 11610 12510 11610 14510. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet tonight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet Wednesday. ERIE CENTRAL 1/3 14620 11620 12520 11510. Waves 3 to 5 feet. ERIE EAST 1/3 15620 12520. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
      Sours: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS61.KCLE.html

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